A March to Remember: Analyzing the New Contenders Born in the 2022 NFL Offseason
The last two Super Bowl champions have something in common: A strong month of March. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the Tom Brady sweepstakes in March 2020 following his high-profile withdrawal from New England. A year later, the current champion Los Angeles Rams parted ways with a piece that had been holding them back — QB Jared Goff. They replaced him with a consistent top-10 force at the position in Matthew Stafford, and he was the difference.
Both teams went on to win titles thanks in large part to the MVP-caliber play from their new QBs, but the Rams are instituting a complete culture shift in the NFL. The Buccaneers already had a solid roster in place to go the distance, and signed Brady as the final piece of the puzzle. The Rams, however, mortgaged their entire future even more than they had in previous trades to get Stafford — surrendering two first-round picks (a commodity they already lacked) to offload Goff’s unreasonable contract and to acquire Stafford.
The move was reminiscent of the deal that brought the Rams All-Pro CB Jalen Ramsey in 2019, who also required a hefty price tag of two first-round picks. But the cascade of talent didn’t stop there: The Rams traded for former Super Bowl MVP Von Miller during the 2021 campaign, losing more high round picks in the process. And finally, just for good measure, the Rams signed former Browns WR Odell Beckham Jr. mid-season at an opportune time. Their current WR2 at the time, Robert Woods, tore his ACL at practice the day after the signing, leaving OBJ as the de facto WR2.
With a star-studded team like the Rams had assembled, one might’ve assumed they simply ran through the NFL’s hierarchy on their way to a championship. But this was far from the case; they did not win a single game in the month of November following their mid-season additions. They genuinely looked out of place in the NFL’s upper-echelon by December, with a record of 7–4.
They would need an extra push to make good on their Super Bowl-or-bust expectations.
In the postseason, it was not Jalen Ramsey who pushed the Rams to Super Bowl glory though, but Odell Beckham and Von Miller. Ramsey was widely accepted as a necessary addition for the Rams when they traded for him; they needed a lockdown CB. On the contrary, at the time of their acquisitions, many saw OBJ and Von Miller’s presence as overkill on an already stacked team. The Rams had both all-time great DT Aaron Donald to pressure the QB as well as LB Leonard Floyd to come off the edge, as he was playing his best football as well. On offense, the Rams already had Robert Woods and eventual receiving triple-crown winner Cooper Kupp, so the Beckham signing just felt unnecessary.
As it turned out, Beckham’s presence proved necessary to the Rams success. He took major defensive attention off of Kupp and even went for 113 yards in a gritty NFC Championship win over San Francisco. As for Miller, although Floyd played solid in the postseason, Miller’s All-Pro talent shined through in the championship pursuit, as he compiled four sacks in the postseason.
Again, with all this production, one would think the Rams strolled through the playoffs to their first championship since the 1999 season. But they needed another yet another piece to secure their Super Bowl dreams.
Matthew Stafford had to lead the eventual champs to game-winning drives in each of the Rams final three games. Working in concert with Cooper Kupp on all three and needing the interior pressure from Aaron Donald in every game, the Rams proved that all the pieces of their stacked roster were necessary to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in February.
We know the NFL is a copycat league — so where will this realization that having too many stars is no longer vanity, but necessity take the league next? We’re only about a month into the offseason and it’s safe to say the Rams have ushered in a new era of win-now football.
The Broncos Are Back in Form
Super Bowl slumps aren’t rare. After seeing how much it takes to reach the top of the mountain and win a championship, it can be unnerving to start from 0–0 again. Well, let’s just say the Denver Broncos fell into more of a coma than a Super Bowl hangover. They have missed the playoffs for six consecutive seasons following their Super Bowl 50 win and have been one of the more mediocre squads in the NFL since.
This continued lack of roster turnover and offseason performance in replacing QB Peyton Manning led to the Broncos switching things up at general manager last offseason. They moved longtime GM John Elway to President of Football Operations and hiring George Paton to manage personnel decisions.
This opened the door for new possibilities at QB, as Elway’s vital criterion at the position seemed to be height. Under his supervision for just under a decade, the Broncos never started a QB under 6’2” and they didn’t even seem to be a consideration for Elway. This led to the Broncos missing out on prospects like QB Russell Wilson (who is 5’11”) in free agency and the draft.
Fortunately, Paton did not make the same mistake. On March 8th, the Broncos pulled the trigger on securing their franchise’s next cornerstone, trading for Russell Wilson in exchange for two first round picks as well as two second rounders.
With young talent at wide receiver and an always-stout defense, many were tempted to already label the Broncos as contenders. But remember — the dynamic has changed. The Rams started an arms race of talent in the NFL and the Broncos recognized Wilson was only their opening move. They snatched DE Randy Gregory away from the Cowboys once free agency opened and now have a serious pass rush tandem with Gregory and star Bradley Chubb coming off the other edge.
Where do they go from here?
The Broncos unfortunately live in the most vicious division in football now — the AFC West. The west has stacked up its pass rush talent and now the Broncos will have to face the likes of Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, Chandler Jones, Maxx Crosby, Chris Jones, and Frank Clark twice a year.
As such, they will need to pivot to building their offensive line — and in a hurry.
The Broncos allowed QB pressures on 28.2% of drop-backs in 2021, good for second worst in the league. Listen, WRs like Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler can get open in a hurry, and Courtland Sutton is always a viable deep threat. But having this kind of liability at offensive line can completely destroy drives with early-down sacks. Wilson was sacked the most of any QB during his time in Seattle, and the sheer number of punts the Seahawks were forced into because Wilson was not protected properly seriously diminished his value.
Again, there is a lot of excitement for Wilson’s debut with the Broncos, and for good reason. But he is currently set up to struggle with the same things he dealt with in Seattle. Moving from one of the best divisions in football to the definitively best AFC West is going to call for Wilson to return to his MVP-caliber form. But to do that, the Broncos need a complete rehaul of their pass protection.
In the AFC West, 12–5 isn’t going to win the division. It’s going to be on Wilson to reignite the culture of winning that Denver has had over the past 3 decades and subsequently lost after Manning, with or without pass protection upgrades.
Goodbye Baker, Hello Deshaun
Following the (ongoing) soap opera that is Deshaun Watson’s off-field life has been… exhausting.
After years of struggling to compete with minimal talent around him in Houston, Watson demanded a trade in 2021. And thanks to the new deal he had just signed, Watson boasted a no-trade clause that allowed him to dictate his next destination. Many expected Watson to get dealt before the 2021 season — that is until Watson was bombarded by cases alleging sexual assault and possible jail time in March 2021.
Not long after that bombshell, new Texans GM Nick Caserio repeatedly insisted the Texans were willing to wait the entirety of the year to trade Watson.
Fans were in for a wait.
After a winding legal battle that spanned nearly the entire year and saw 22 civil cases compiled; and a generous amount of Fifth Amendment pleads by Mr. Watson, all criminal cases against Watson were dropped. Now he would only need to focus on settling the 22 civil cases and most importantly, jail time would now be out of the question.
And just like that, the interest around Watson skyrocketed just a few weeks ago. Teams from every corner of the league were calling about him. Even entire divisions (the NFC South) had intense interest in Watson. But again, his no trade clause let him root out possible destinations and pick his future. After saying no to just about the whole league, just the Saints and Falcons remained in the running.
And just as quickly as they were ruled out, Watson changed his mind and decided he would only waive his no-trade clause for the Cleveland Browns.
The absolute whirlwind of events that led to Watson’s move to Cleveland were only fitting given the past year of drama. Nevertheless, Cleveland paid big-time to make the deal happen.
They sacrificed three 1st-round selections to get Watson and became another case of a team going all in to win now like the Rams. Their QB for the past few seasons and former №1 overall pick, Baker Mayfield, had been playing inconsistent football at best on a roster that was essentially playoffs or bust.
After indeed missing the playoffs and causing some rifts in the locker room, it was time for the Browns to move on from Mayfield and he is currently on the trade block for Cleveland.
What’s next for the Browns?
Unlike Wilson in the AFC West, the Browns do not have extremely staunch competition within the division. The Ravens are reeling after an injury-ridden 2021 campaign (but remain a considerable threat), and the Steelers are looking for any semblance of an offensive identity. The only real current threat remains in the state of Ohio with the current AFC Champion Bengals.
With a revamped offensive line and one of the most explosive offenses in the league, Watson will have to keep pace with Cincy twice a year. But who will he have in his corner to match their offensive prowess?
Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. have both left the Browns in the past 5 months, leaving their WR corps depleted. To replace Landry, the Browns traded for former Cowboys WR Amari Cooper, who should create instant offense with Watson. He is one of the soundest route runners in the league and has experience helping out on off-schedule plays with Dak Prescott, so he should seamlessly mesh with Watson.
Watson will also have a league-leading RB tandem to lean on in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. They combined for over 1600 yards last season despite both missing time with injury and should set up the play action nicely for HC Kevin Stefanski’s bootleg-centric offense.
The issues arise offensively with the Browns in the receiving depth however. As it stands, TE David Njoku will be the second option in this offense. While Njoku has shown some receiving savvy, Stefanski has historically been at his best as an offensive mind when he has two great receivers to work with.
Outside of Cooper, the Browns WR depth needs work. Donovan Peoples-Jones is their WR2 as it stands, and he has shown promise. But when you trade 3 first round picks for a QB, you can’t surround him with promise — you need proven talent. The Browns will need to chase down a bona fide WR2 by September.
Other than that, the Browns are well-rounded. Their offensive line could be more consistent, but they have the pieces up front to protect Watson and maul in the run game.
They have solid young talent that has played well in the secondary as CB Denzel Ward looks like he is well on his way towards being a future All-Pro, and DE Myles Garrett is a consistent Defensive Player of the Year candidate. If anything, they should look to stock up on defensive linemen as a deep defensive line is key to any championship team.
In terms of guys on their way out, QB Baker Mayfield should bring in something in the ballpark of a third-round pick. Now that the Browns have Watson, it’s clear they will just want to offload Mayfield’s deal. They won’t have any leverage in trade negotiations and will likely settle for a less than satisfactory offer. In short — don’t expect Mayfield’s inevitable trade to recoup any of the assets expended for Watson.
Another Year, Another Vet at QB for Indy
Am I the only one who finds it hilarious that the Colts drafted two Hall of Fame talents at QB back-to-back in Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck… But have recently just given up on getting a QB through the draft?
When Luck unexpectedly retired in 2019, the Indianapolis Colts turned to former Patriots’ backup Jacoby Brissett to steer the ship but realized how talented their roster was after a 7–9 season. They pushed for a playoff run in 2020 and brought in Chargers’ legend Phillip Rivers for one last ride. They finished 11–5 and nearly upset the Bills in the Wild Card round.
After Rivers retired, the Colts still had an open championship window. As such, they abstained from taking a risk on a rookie QB and instead went for another veteran and former MVP candidate, Carson Wentz. In an up and down season, Wentz (but mostly RB Jonathon Taylor’s ridiculous season) took the Colts to the brink of the playoffs. All they had to do was beat the 2–14 Jaguars in Week 18.
They lost 26–11 and Wentz did not play well.
After just one season with the North Dakota State product, the Colts shipped Wentz to the Commanders for a mid-round pick. They, as many other teams, realized mediocrity and inconsistency will not get a team within shouting distance from the Super Bowl.
Then, in a move reminiscent of the Stafford to LA trade, they extricated a talented veteran QB who had been loyal to a single franchise for well over a decade to help their cause — Atlanta’s Matt Ryan.
The Falcons, glad to offload Ryan’s massive deal (although they have to pay the largest dead cap hit of all-time because of it), traded him graciously for a third-round pick.
But what does a 37-year-old Ryan bring to the table in an Indianapolis offense that has been saved by its running game?
Mainly accuracy. Wentz has been known to be a bit of gambler at times with the ball, and in an offense where ball control is vital, the Colts could not stand Wentz’s inconsistency in decision-making last year.
Ryan on the other hand is a career 67% completion percentage type of QB and is used to making smart reads as the only real offensive piece on his team. But that contributed to 2021 being one of his worst seasons statistically, as the Falcons relied on the vet to carry them through a lack of run game prowess and receiving talent. Ryan finished the 17-game slate with just 20 TDs to 12 INTs, and the second worst interception rate of his career.
This was due in large part to the sheer amount of pressure Ryan faced in Atlanta though. His offensive line ranked 27th overall according to Pro Football Focus last season and was full of inexperienced linemen. Added to the fact that he was throwing to a lot of receivers under the age of 25 or frankly just practice squad guys, it’s hard to blame the 2021 season on Ryan alone.
In Indianapolis however, he won’t have to worry about carrying the offensive load. In fact, he’ll get a front row seat to Indy’s special offensive line: The Big Blue Wall. They struggled with injuries last year and played noticeably worse blocking for Carson Wentz, but if healthy they should provide the mostly immobile Ryan ample time to get through his progressions.
Where do they go from here? Did Indy make the right decision at QB?
At his best, Matt Ryan is clearly better than Carson Wentz. With an MVP under his belt (sure, Wentz should have one too) and a Super Bowl appearance, Ryan knows what it takes to be a top five QB in the NFL.
But even with all the limiting factors in Atlanta, his performance last season puts a legitimate question on whether he is worth giving up on Wentz for. After all, Wentz finished with not only a better passer rating last year, but with a better TD:INT ratio (27:7 compared to Ryan’s 20:12).
In an offense where smart QB play is practically the only pre-requisite, it makes sense for the Colts to go with a vet like Ryan who has seen every look an NFL defense can give a QB. But Wentz’s mobility and elite arm at times warranted another season with a healthy offensive line. At the same time, Ryan’s window of elite play is going to shut soon, so it’s hard to fault the Colts for wanting to acquire him before that happens.
The switch to Ryan will save the Colts around $3.5 million versus paying Wentz since the Falcons are paying off a lot of Ryan’s deal, so financially there is some upside to the swap.
Any way you slice it, like the other teams mentioned thus far, the receiving depth in Indy is lacking. They just lost WR Zach Pascal to free agency and veteran WR T.Y. Hilton’s future with the team is in limbo. As it stands, they’ll need to rely on third year pro Michael Pittman Jr. to step up again at WR1, and unproven talents like Parris Campbell to back him up.
They need WRs crucially, but the good news is Matt Ryan’s arrival is already stirring up interest:
Now while an OBJ to Indy deal is unlikely, he can’t be the only WR wanting to team up with Jonathon Taylor and Matt Ryan. Even if they don’t get a decent WR2 by the end of free agency or through trade however, the offensive line and run game should be enough to carry this balanced roster into the AFC playoff field.
Defensively, again like the other teams on this list, Indy is set. They finished top 10 in points allowed and were tied for first in turnover differential last season. But their defense was lacking a serious pass rush, as rookie Kwity Paye and All-Pro DT DeForest Buckner were the only bright spots in that category for the Colts’ D.
Sure enough, they went and swooped up Pro Bowl DE Yannick Ngakoue from the Raiders to shore up the pass rush. So, look for the Colts’ defense to go from respectable to dangerous in 2022.
More Newly Minted Contenders
Let’s look at some other teams that made substantial strides into contender status but will move forward with the same signal callers from last season.
The Dolphins prepare to integrate the deep ball
When the Dolphins brought in former 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel to be their head coach, and former Niners RB Raheem Mostert as well as former Saints OT Terron Armstead, it was easy to assume they were rebuilding the success of Kyle Shannahan’s San Francisco squad.
Well, Wednesday morning kind of threw a wrench in that assumption.
The Dolphins gave up five picks including a first this year to acquire former Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill (they subsequently made him the highest-paid WR ever). As fast as any player in the history of the NFL, Hill brings in a whole other dimension of field spacing wilder than the Dolphins ever imagined they’d have. Their new WR1, Hill, ran a 4.29 at the combine, while Jaylen Waddle, now their WR2, ran a 4.37.
Sorry, my hands caught fire typing that.
With all this deep ball potential though, the initial reaction from fans is that this move is all in vain. Their current signal caller, Tua Tagovailoa, has developed a reputation for being one of the worst deep passers in the NFL, mostly because he rarely takes shots past 20 yards.
Indeed, through his first 17 starts with Miami, Tagovailoa had the third least number of passes over 20 yards in the league. But, in those limited attempts, Tagovailoa completed them at the second-highest rate in the NFL, per PFF.
I have to give Tagovailoa a pass for the same reason I gave Matt Ryan one for their 2021 performances though: Awful blocking. Miami allowed the most pressures in the NFL last year and Tagovailoa had such little time to throw that they were forced to switch to a more RPO-centric offense.
In the past few weeks, the Dolphins have shown commitment in bringing in veteran talent to fortify their 2019 first round selection, and that should mean more time to throw.
Tua Tagovailoa has had all the excuses to come up short in his two seasons in the NFL. But, with the current weapons and protection at his disposal, 2022 will be a do-or-die season for the young QB
The Raiders reunite an old duo
Former Green Bay WR Davante Adams made it clear he was unhappy with the Packers in the weeks before he was traded. He was placed on a franchise tag that would pay $20 million over one season, and was justifiably angry. The franchise tag pays at a rate equivalent to the fifth best player at a position — Davante Adams has been far more dominant over the last two seasons than that.
And after while other less talented receivers were getting multi-year extensions that paid more per year, Adams announced he would not play for the Packers under the franchise tag. Unbeknownst to NFL fans however, the problems had deeper foundations than just money.
The Raiders subsequently swooped in and acquired Adams for a first and second pick in this year’s draft — then made him the highest paid WR in football (that is, until Tyreek Hill got his deal a few days later). But the craziest part about the whole deal is that Green Bay offered even more for Adams to stay.
But his mind was made up — Adams was ready to go. And he landed in just about the best place possible.
Raiders QB Derrick Carr and Adams have a relationship going back to their college days almost a decade ago at Fresno State. The tandem was prolific at the school, as Derrick Carr left the Bulldogs as their leading passer, and Adams finished fourth overall in receiving in just two seasons played.
That success turned into a deep friendship that lasted even after Carr went to the Oakland Raiders and Adams to the Green Bay Packers.
Now, they have a chance to make that magic happen again in Las Vegas.
But the question is whether this team is ready to compete in a division as unwieldy as the AFC West. The answer is a pretty solid yes.
Adams not only provides a firm WR1 for this roster but rounds out the depth nicely. His addition will slide WR Hunter Renfrow — one of the smoother route-runners in the league — to WR2. They also added a proven third option in former Chiefs WR Demarcus Robinson this offseason. With RB Josh Jacobs finishing 2021 strong, this Raiders offense may be the best to don the black and gray in a long time.
On defense, they made a move of similar magnitude, locking down All-Pro pass rusher Chandler Jones to a multi-year deal. He’ll now team up with Pro Bowl DE Maxx Crosby whose contract was recently extended by the Raiders, and they are sure to wreak havoc on the elite QBs of the AFC West.
The front-end help may only partially mask the mediocre secondary in Las Vegas however. The Raiders do not have a bona fide CB1 or real ball hawks at safety, so while they have proven they can get it done in pass coverage, don’t be surprised if they finish near the bottom of the league in takeaways again.
Even with these additions, the Raiders need to focus on ironing out the turnover margin. They finished -9 last season, and they can’t expect their defense to do much better in that department in 2022. While it is enticing to take shots at Davante Adams all game long, the Raiders key to competing in a loaded division will be to pick their shots wisely and take care of the football.
The Chargers bolster their defense; take care of offensive weapons
Simply put, the Chargers were far too talented to miss the playoffs in 2021. They finished the season with six Pro Bowlers — good for second in the league. Their quarterback, Justin Herbert, is really hitting his stride in the NFL. He played fringe top-five football last season and surpassed Chargers’ legend Dan Fouts for the most yards passing and most passing TDs in a single season.
His weapons on offense are spectacular, as he has one of the most well-rounded receivers in the league in Keenan Allen at WR1, and a top vertical receiving threat in WR2 Mike Williams. Even his slot receivers played well, as young WRs Jalen Guyton and Josh Palmer had solid years in reserve roles respectively. Herbert even has one of the best receiving running backs in the league in Austin Ekeler, who finished with over 1500 scrimmage yards in 2021.
The defense has big time star talent as well. Pass rusher Joey Bosa is always in the top five conversation and star safety Derwin James finally played a full season for the first time in two years. Both had spectacular production and impact in 2021, with James muscling his way back into the top safety conversation with his incredible tackling and ball skills.
Despite having these playmakers, the Chargers’ run defense was among worst in the NFL in 2021. They have struggled with run defense for years and brought in veteran DT Linval Joseph in 2020 to patch it up. That did little to nothing, as they dropped from 18th in rush yards allowed in 2020, to 30th in 2021.
They were completely exposed by run heavy squads, the Ravens being prime example. They mashed the Chargers 34–6 in October, with 187 yards by the ground.
Yikes.
But it wasn’t blowouts that removed the Chargers from contention in 2021; it was the nailbiters. The Chargers lost five games by a single score in 2021, and in total, 10 of their games were decided by a single score. Going 5–5 in such matchups may seem like a solid deal, but the AFC West is an unforgiving division. The Chargers needed help this offseason to get over the hump.
So naturally, the Chargers moved to buff up their defensive line. They traded for former Bears OLB Khalil Mack, who is an absolute mauler off the edge in both the run and pass game. Mack paired up with Joey Bosa may prove to be the most lethal pass rushing combo in the NFL next year. But, arguably more importantly, the move provides head coach Brandon Staley with a dominant piece to help rework his defensive strategy against the run.
The Chargers also shored up their above average pass defense, signing former Patriots ballhawk CB J.C. Jackson to a massive deal. This signing is HUGE for the Chargers’ overall defensive flexibility. Bill Belichick often put Jackson in straight-up man coverage while he was in New England. This wasn’t laziness by the best defensive mind ever, it was pure trust. Jackson thrived in his brutal role, nabbing 25 picks in just four seasons. When it became clear the Patriots (inexplicably) wouldn’t retain Jackson, the whole league came calling. The Chargers were simply too appealing for Jackson to ignore.
But his impact won’t just be felt in locking down opposing top receivers.
Brandon Staley likes to put two safeties deep to avoid getting burnt by long passes, and that takes Derwin James out of run support more often than not. This is because the Chargers’ talent level at CB has been questionable for the past few seasons, forcing Staley to compensate with safety help.
Having Jackson man up on a guy like Davante Adams will allow Derwin James more snaps closer to the line. With a kind of Troy Polamalu playstyle, James’ presence closer to the action on run plays may be what the doctor ordered to remedy this terrible ground defense.
Offensively, like we talked about, there are minimal issues. Herbert has displayed a rare clutch gene, as LA converted a league-high 22 4th-down conversions in 2021. The talent is there like we mentioned, and the Chargers made sure to keep the nucleus together. They gave WR Mike Williams a massive extension, allowing him and Keenan Allen to continue to wreak havoc on opposing secondaries. They had the talent to compete last year, and will have largely the same talent to run it back in 2022.
The Chargers have a Super Bowl-worthy roster, yet again. But they haven’t made the playoffs since 2018 — that needs to change in 2022.
One final thought.
Think about all the teams I just mentioned. All of these franchises want to win now and are making the moves necessary —but what conference are they all in?
That’s right. The AFC is going to be so stacked with talent next year that some legitimate title contenders won’t get into the postseason field. And with the number of long-term extensions signed, it’s clear: The AFC will reign supreme for years to come in the NFL.
