The talk of the NBA for days was Kyrie Irving. Yet to sign his lucrative $36 million player option for 2023 with the Brooklyn Nets, many speculated that he would leave or sign the option with the intentions of helping the Nets facilitate a trade. Irving’s departure would be the end of the Nets’ contending chances in their eyes, as they were reportedly ready to ship out his co-star Kevin Durant if Irving were to leave.
Brooklyn’s entire future hinged on what Irving decided to do. Luckily for them, Monday afternoon saw Irving decide to sign the player option, but with unexpected intentions.
Irving reportedly believed his sign and trade prospects were exhausted and instead decided to play another year for the Nets. After all, to go to a team like the Los Angeles Lakers, Irving would need to give up over $30 million and sign a team-friendly exception.
And so ended the drama in Brooklyn at least for a year. With Irving under contract and some promising free agents on the market to bolster their defense as well as a reported swearing of loyalty by superstar Kevin Durant, the Nets looked to have one more chance at a title in 2023.
Chaos.
Although the reasoning behind Durant’s bombshell decision to ask for a trade is not known at this moment, it reopens a realm of speculation and a pure frenzy in the association. The Nets have made it clear that if they cannot keep both Irving and Durant, both will be shipped off. So, with Irving and Durant both possibly on the trade block, let’s look at what could happen over the course of the offseason.
Where does Irving land? What’s his value?
Lacking a no-trade clause, Irving technically has no say over where he goes. With just one year left on his contract thanks to the signing of his player option, it’ll be pretty easy for teams to negotiate a trade deal for Irving.
But even if he ends up in a location he dislikes, the prospect of being one year away from free agency may be enough for Irving to play for that franchise temporarily. He also has some work to do in proving his worth as a max contract player, starting with playing a full season regardless of where he goes.
This is an important distinction to make between his and Durant’s situations. Durant has four years left on his new deal and will undoubtedly hold out if traded to an undesirable location. This makes the market for Irving far larger than Durant’s, as Durant practically has enough leverage to make up for his lack of a no-trade clause. Teams with less leverage and assets can make a bid for Irving since he will be more compelled to fulfill the last year on his deal for them than Durant.
So, where might Irving end up and what will the Nets ask for in return?
Well, the Nets have shown their hand already. By stating they would trade both stars if one left, they have quite literally told the entire league that Irving will get moved since Durant no longer wishes to play for them.
This weakens their leverage to essentially nothing as the Nets cannot bluff the possibility of Irving suiting up for them next year. They don’t want that and neither does he. Once again, it’s important to note that Irving has been hunting a max deal for a while now. If the team that trades for him is unwilling to pay over $45 million per year to Irving, he’s essentially a one-year rental on his current contract and will leave to get that money elsewhere.
All these factors point to Irving’s trade value being quite low, possibly in the ballpark of a single first round pick, which is terrible for a player of his stature. But when you consider how many teams are one piece away from truly contending next year, his value becomes unpredictable because of the desperation factor and a possible overpay to ensure the acquisition of Irving.
Irving has expressed interest in facilitating a move to the Dallas Mavericks, the New York Knicks, the Philadelphia 76ers, the Los Angeles Clippers, the Los Angeles Lakers, or the Miami Heat. Keep in mind these are just the teams he prefers to play for.
The Lakers (the only team in the league to make an offer for Irving) have already had offers turned down and likely don’t have the assets to reasonably trade for Irving, and the Clippers already filled their need for a guard by acquiring John Wall. The Knicks just acquired Jalen Brunson at guard and Philadelphia is struggling to keep their financials together as it stands. The Heat are the front runners to acquire Kevin Durant, leaving no space to pursue Irving and the Dallas Mavericks are already slated to be dug firmly into the luxury tax in 2023, making an Irving trade tough.
Now theoretically, any of these teams could make major moves for Irving. But the only team that expressed real sign-and-trade interest in the seven-time All-Star was the Los Angeles Lakers, indicating low interest.
In order to acquire Irving, the Lakers would essentially need to not only pay for his services but pay the Nets a wealth of their remaining picks just to offload Russell Westbrook’s massive $47 million player option onto Brooklyn. It’s a common practice in sports to pay another suitor extra to pay off an unsatisfactory deal, but the Nets may ask for more than the Lakers can part with. Keeping Westbrook and trading Irving may not be an option either, as the payroll would be beyond salvageable at that point.
Who’s left with assets and a roster that could be competitive with Irving in 2023?
Well, the Dallas Mavericks may be a good fit for both Irving and the Nets. Although they are admittedly deep in the luxury tax, the Mavericks have retained most of their first-round selections over the next seven seasons that could serve as valuable assets in an Irving trade. They also have some solid talent to use in a trade like forward Reggie Bullock, Christian Wood, and veteran Tim Hardaway Jr. (also a tough contract to trade).
Dallas was formidable enough to reach the conference finals last season thanks to their incredible depth at guard. With Jalen Brunson signing elsewhere, it isn’t unreasonable to assume they’d enter the Irving sweepstakes to fill that void in scoring.
Although Luka Dončić is just starting his prime for the Mavs, that desperation factor will kick in soon for Dallas if they do not pair him up with a co-star soon. Look for the Mavericks to go all-in on Irving because of assets, proximity to contending status, and mutual interest from Kyrie himself.
Other possible destinations may include the Phoenix Suns as they will likely miss out on Durant, the New Orleans Pelicans as they have assets and a solid roster to be competitive with, and the Toronto Raptors who need another guard on their big-heavy roster.
Although these locations make the most sense right now, Irving could end up anywhere this offseason. His journey in the coming months will likely be more interesting than Durant’s as the Nets find a suitor.
Where’s Durant going? How many picks will he attract?
Now Durant is a no-brainer. Any offers short of three first-round selections and star talent won’t be entertained and you must have a win-now roster to be in the mix for four-time scoring champ.
Unlike Irving, Durant has four years left on his mega-deal making him a long-term investment. There are no rentals here, whoever wins the KD sweepstakes gets one of the best players in the history of basketball for four years.
So who fits the mold? Who has the assets to go all in for Durant and the team to make him happy? After all, Durant has made over $300 million in his career from NBA contracts alone, holding out if he is traded to an undesirable team would be no problem for him.
The team that jumps off the page in terms of willingness to forego assets and a roster that can win now is the Miami Heat. With multiple deep playoffs runs in the Jimmy Butler-led past years, the Heat have always seemed one piece away from announcing themselves as a true force to be reckoned with.
Durant would fit the mold perfectly, bringing another scorer to pair with Jimmy Butler. Durant, a more than capable defender in his own right, would get a chance to breathe on defense with Miami as well. They have no shortage of on-ball defenders to take any assignment, letting KD take the easier matchups in most games. It’s a perfect fit and is completely on brand with Miami’s history of bringing star talent to South Beach through free agency and trade.
Miami would have to give up some of that on-ball defense however, as Brooklyn would target their star center Bam Adebayo in a trade. Regardless, Miami’s culture and front office are so in touch that it isn’t crazy to say they could salvage the roster while giving up assets for Durant.
Speaking of assets, the Heat own three of their four next first-round picks, so they could certainly entice Brooklyn with future prospects in a trade. There are more than a few reasons why they’re widely considered a favorite to land Durant.
The more widely circulated possibility has been Durant to Phoenix, however. The Suns have been one of the best teams in the Western Conference for the past two seasons and have could use another elite scorer with Chris Paul’s offensive potency declining. But this trade may have been snuffed out before it could materialize, as it has been reported that the Nets will not ship Durant unless they acquire Phoenix’s franchise cornerstone in Devin Booker.
The Suns are set to offer Booker a max deal next week and don’t seem to have any intentions of trading the All-Star guard, essentially putting this trade possibility in limbo.
Memphis is another contender that could use Durant’s abilities. Lacking shot creation, the Grizzlies had to rely on transition points and rim attacking to create decent spot-up shots all year. Bringing Durant in would make this scrappy team one of the most balanced in the NBA thanks to his league-leading shot-creation. But they’d be forced to give up some of their young talent.
There is no doubt the Nets would ask for star center Jaren Jackson Jr. and one of the team’s leaders in Dillon Brooks in the deal as well as any number of draft picks for Durant. Any way you slice it, the Grizzlies would have to believe that Ja Morant and Kevin Durant are a good enough superstar duo to win it all with a lesser supporting cast.
In short, a Durant trade would force Memphis to give up most of the players that made their culture a winning one for the last few seasons. If the failed Brooklyn experiment taught NBA teams anything, it was that superteams based around two or three players are nothing without a serviceable supporting cast. Memphis would have to think twice about giving up a promising young roster to acquire Durant in the coming off-season.
Practically every team could use Durant’s talent, but the only remaining ones that could facilitate a trade for him include the Dallas Mavericks, the Chicago Bulls, and the Atlanta Hawks. Every one of those teams would likely run into the same problem the Grizzlies ran into, as Brooklyn’s asking prices have shown they don’t simply want future assets, but players that can make an impact now.
In short, teams who aren’t willing to forego their entire future and a good portion of their current talent will not pry KD from the Nets.
Kevin Durant has set up a high stakes bidding war for the most versatile scorer in the history of basketball: Himself.
Where does this leave the Nets?
While yes, this is the worst case imaginable for Brooklyn, they are handling it perfectly.
A decade ago, the Celtics traded some disgruntled old stars in Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett to Brooklyn for a wealth of picks while the Nets learned a hard lesson about being on the wrong side of that kind of trade.
Now, the Nets are in the same situation as the Celtics were, but with two stars in their prime. Their tenacity in acquiring only the best for their two stars is obvious, and it wouldn’t be surprising if they end up with a solid roster next season and a wealth of picks to boot.
Don’t get it twisted, this is quite possibly the worst attempt at creating a dynasty in NBA history. But the Nets have taken a measure of control over this situation by not offering either star in question a no-trade clause. They have two players that make most teams an instant contender and they get full authority over the returns those players net them.
If Brooklyn handles this right, they could be back to contending “the right way” with young talent littering their roster as product of the inevitable trades of KD and Kyrie.
If they handle this wrong however, the Nets will be left with a lack of assets to recover as they forked so many over in the Durant and Harden trades, plunging this franchise back into decades of irrelevance.
It isn’t exaggeration to say the future of Brooklyn basketball hinges on the execution of these two monumental trades.
