NBA Bubble Top 10: Who Will Take Home the Quarantine Championship?
About a year ago, I published my first article on Medium. It was a top 10 power ranking of the NBA following an offseason that saw many stars move locations and teams either gain or lose key assets. Just under 12 months later, the NBA’s restart is finally on the horizon 4 months after COVID-19 safety concerns suspended play in March. The top 22 teams will head to Orlando’s Walt Disney World Resorts to play the rest of the season and playoffs in the “Bubble”. With the resumption of the season coming on July 30th, now is the perfect time to look at the updated hierarchy of the league’s top 10 teams.
1. Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers went on an absolute tear this season. They clinched their playoff birth before the season was suspended and are currently 4th in offensive rating, not to mention 3rd in defensive rating. The addition of Anthony Davis has proven to be the main reason for such a drastic turnaround this year, as his stifling defense mixed with his ability to get 25+ PPG has been huge for the Lakers who had been missing a true big man to help the team over their playoff woes.
You cannot forget the King himself — Lebron James, when you’re talking Lakers’ basketball. LBJ was having himself a year, putting up 25+ PPG while leading the league in assists with 10+ per outing. While I think another certain athletic freak in the east will win MVP honors, James has put his name in the drawing for the award with a simply magnificent season so far. The Lake Show will need his savvy skills for this run.
The abrupt suspension of the season brought some changes that will be palpable to the Lakers when the season starts though. Avery Bradley, who started 44 out of the 63 games for LA, will not travel to the bubble to finish the season. This sent the Lakers into a search for a solid shooting guard who could fill in for Bradley. Their search ended with J.R. Smith — a former teammate of LeBron James and a solid shooter to add to a squad that spaces the floor well already. While their defense will be hurt by replacing a defensive specialist like Bradley with an offensive-minded 6th or 7th man like Smith, I think the Lakers will be ok with this swap. After all, Danny Green, Lebron James, and Anthony Davis will provide more than enough defensive talent for the Lakers.
It is also worth noting that Rajon Rondo will miss over a month with a broken thumb, so they will need to account for the loss of his playmaking and defense but it looks like he’ll be ready for the playoffs.
I believe their chemistry and talent have gotten them so far and will continue to carry this talented Lakers team deep into this unusual tournament.
2. Milwaukee Bucks
Giannis Antetokounmpo is having himself a season. The defending MVP has carried this well-oiled machine of a Bucks team to the league’s best record and is looking at another MVP to add to his trophy case. He is top 3 in points and rebounds currently, breaking the league as usual. Teams often opt to go small and space the floor in the league today and that is exactly what the Greek Freak preys on. Time after time you will notice an undersized guard or forward step up on Giannis just to get embarrassed by his physicality and speed for a man of his size.
How can a team stop such a threat on defense though? The only team that definitively stopped the man last year was the Raptors in the playoffs. They completely changed their defensive schemes up and it didn’t hurt that they had the best defensive player in the league last year in Kawhi Leonard. Since most teams don’t have a generationally good defender like Kawhi, we can expect Giannis to tear through the east, with players like Ben Simmons giving him issues every once in a while, because of his size. If he disappoints again this year in the playoffs, it could have a profoundly negative impact on Giannis’ legacy. I expect to see him play on with some extra motivation and vigor when the restart commences.
Outside of Giannis, the Bucks are pretty solid. Of course, they have an all-star who can go get an efficient 20+ PPG in Khris Middleton but the roster doesn’t exactly pop off the page as compared to teams like the Clippers or Lakers. Where they shine is their playmaking. Veteran guards Eric Bledsoe and George Hill both have athletic finishing abilities and solid shooting but move the ball extremely efficiently. Even their big men can keep the rock moving as if you watch a Bucks game through you will see how fluidly guys like center Brook Lopez facilitate good offensive flow through their passing.
It’s also worth noting they have Mike Budenholzer as their coach (a guy who has made teams with little to no “star power” into powerhouses) and you get an idea of how dangerous this squad is. I think there are 3–5 teams with a real shot at Finals run and Milwaukee definitely has a spot in there.
3. Los Angeles Clippers
My preseason prediction had the Clippers at no. 1, so a drop to 3 isn’t the worst scenario. They’re having a great year all things considered, with a nice 44–20 record, good for 2nd out west. All the points I made in my previous rankings have been the reasons for their success, as production from their deep bench and their rock-solid defense have propelled them to be one of the best teams in franchise history.
Kawhi Leonard is having another amazing year. Despite the never-ending criticisms for his “load management” to avoid injury, the 3x All-NBA forward has brought valuable star power to the star-needy Clippers.
Speaking of star power, Paul George has contributed well this season. While missing 22 games this season, he has still been solid. He’s good for 20+ PPG and he finished 3rd in MVP voting last year. If he can recoup some of that fire he had in OKC last season, the Clippers could jump back to the top of this list come October.
Going into the bench, they haven’t disappointed. Lou Williams is showing out yet again in his 16th year in the league — getting 18 PPG and making his case for his 4th (yes, 4th) 6th Man of The Year award. Also coming off the bench is Montrezl Harrell, who himself is making a case for 6th man. He’s putting up 18.6 PPG and is a beast in the paint on defense. Both of these guys are legitimate spark plugs for LA and are rare examples of investing in an elite bench in today’s league.
Key later additions include guard Reggie Jackson and center Joakim Noah, who add playmaking and paint defense off the bench respectively. Somehow the Clippers invested in their bench more throughout the year and I believe it will pay off dearly.
I wouldn’t surprised if the Clippers put it together and won it all this season as they are the most well-rounded team on this list.
4. Philadelphia 76ers
This season has been rather underwhelming for the Sixers. They are 6th in the east and haven’t exactly been doing amazing this year. They are currently in the bottom half of the league in offensive rating but are 6th on defense. This 4-month break in the action was the worst thing that could’ve happened to a lot of teams who were in rhythm like the Lakers, but the Sixers might benefit from this. They were dealing with a lot of injuries and the sudden suspension of the season allowed them to regain the players they temporarily lost due to the unforgiving year.
In terms of pure talent, I think the Sixers can hold their own with anyone in the league. They have one of the best centers in basketball right now, Joel Embiid. He has been playing his best ball thus far this season and continues to be a force in the paint on both sides of the ball, not to mention a bit of a sniper from the 3. You can’t forget about their modern Magic Johnson in 6’11” guard Ben Simmons. Their chemistry alone is enough to land this squad a spot somewhere at the bottom of this list, but where they truly shine is their well-rounded roster.
They can get 20 points per night from pretty much anyone on their starting lineup and can man up with any team in the league on the other side of the ball. Their starting 5 has 4 players above 6’8”, a stark contrast to the small ball lineups we see many teams try out to space the floor. They have multiple guys that can hold their own against anyone you throw at them like Tobias Harris and Al Horford.
Although they are one of the biggest starting lineups in the league, everyone except Ben Simmons can shoot at a solid clip, with the roster hitting 36% from three this season.
Their bench is one of the deepest, with defensive stoppers like Matisse Thybulle and shooters like Shake Milton and Furkan Kormaz. I like the lineup combinations Brett Brown has access to and there are reports they have thought of moving Ben Simmons to PF which would likely give Milton the starting PG role. If he could bring his team-best sharpshooting to the starting lineup, the Sixers could be even more surgical on offense.
The 76ers can chew their opponents up in a variety of ways and their versatility and size not to mention their refreshed nature after the break puts them very high on this list. Although they aren’t quite as flashy as some of the squads above them and aren’t even top 5 in their conference standings, they have qualities that make them a real wild card for a championship.
5. Toronto Raptors
What a surprise this Toronto team has been. Leading the league in points allowed and currently sitting at 2nd in the east in wins, the Raptors have fared extremely well without their Finals’ MVP Kawhi Leonard.
What has lead to this success on defense though? Players like their 2 small starting guards in Kyle Lowry and Fred Vanvleet have shown out this season, stepping up in a big way for their perimeter D. 3rd year forward OG Anunoby has stayed healthy and earned a starting role as well. He has proven to be their best defensive stopper, filling in for the absence of Kawhi Leonard’s defense very well. His long frame and amazing defensive instincts were things the Raptors could live without last year, but this year he has proved that they truly need him. It also helps that they have one of the most prolific paint defenders of this generation in Serge Ibaka. With center Marc Gasol going in and out of the lineup this season, Ibaka has done a fantastic job anchoring the paint and despite his smaller frame for playing center, he’s still playing at a high level for them.
But the real star of the team is Spicy P himself, Pascal Siakam. The 4th-year star forward has posted the best numbers of his career after a stunning postseason which helped win the Raptors the Finals last year. His production on offense along with mid-tier scoring from all over the lineup and even bench has put this squad in a position to make a run.
While they don’t have the star power to go blow for blow with some of the teams on this list, they can cause some trouble in the east off of their defensive prowess. Don’t be surprised if we see them pull some upsets throughout the tournament.
6. Boston Celtics
The Celtics have been doing great in their first season since parting with guard Kyrie Irving. Replacing him with former Hornets star Kemba Walker has turned out to be a far better fit. The Celtics used to be rather dependent on Kyrie when he was in the lineup, but with Kemba, it seems like the offense is more dynamic and freer to play through whoever it needs to. Because of this, rising star Jayson Tatum is having a career-best year with guard Jaylen Brown getting 20 points per game for the first time in his career.
Although the team chemistry in Boston along with the coaching seems to be the focal point of their offense, the Celtics have 2 certified isolation pros in their lineup. If Kemba Walker or Jayson Tatum get matched up with a defensive liability, they can either take them to the rim off the dribble or step it back; they are both geniuses when in open space. This adds another fold to an already well-run offense and I think Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum can both put this team on their back if it comes to them down the line.
Picking between the Raptors and Celtics is a tough choice. Together, they make up the 2 best defensive squads in the league in points allowed with Boston barely trailing Toronto in that regard. Where I give the Raptors an advantage though has to be depth. They have dealt with injuries throughout the year and constantly solve those issues with another solid player off the bench. I think if the Celtics sustained even one injury to any of their top 3 starters it could diminish their chances of a run.
Even with that in mind though, this is still a well-coached squad with solid bench play out of guys like Marcus Smart and Enes Kanter. I’d look out for this gritty Celtics team to makes some noise as play resumes.
7. Denver Nuggets
There aren’t many ways to classify this team other than the word odd. Odd in the fact that they don’t pop out on paper and seem reliant on a big man to facilitate their entire offense. So how are they currently 3rd in the west?
Well, let’s start with the big man who facilitates their offense, Nikola “Joker” Jokic. The man averages just about 7 assists per game and gets boards. He’s truly a one of a kind forward and has kept up his great play this season. He has shown an ability to score in a variety of ways as well and that floor spacing has been big for the Nuggets.
Denver’s defense has been huge for them though, as they rank in the top 10 in that category. I believe any of their starting 5 can hold their own against some of the league’s more solid offensive threats. Their defense will be instrumental to their success in Orlando, so look for them to pester the ball every possession.
On offense, I like what the whole roster brings to the table. Jamal Murray is a great shooter and can constantly keep the defense guessing since he is also a great finisher. Outside of Jokic, he has to be the most complete player and valuable asset to this team. Guard Gary Harris brings a little bit of both as well, functioning as more a 3 and D player, a commodity in today’s game. Forward Will Barton is a fantastic finisher and Paul Millsap brings a veteran presence to a team that is rather unversed in playoff action.
But this team’s X-factor isn’t in their starting lineup. 2nd year forward Michael Porter Jr. has been on ice for this team since he entered the league. Formerly a standout at Missouri who could do it all, Porter suffered a back injury that made him unappealing as a top 10 pick in the 2018 draft. He fell to the Nuggets at 14 but missed his rookie season as a result of the nagging injury. This season he’s seen some solid action but hasn’t started nor averaged over 15 minutes per contest. Some of this has been the Nuggets easing him back into action to be wary of the injury, some of it seems like they want to coach him up a bit more before giving him a large role.
I understand that mindset but when the playoffs arrive, I think it would be the perfect time to let this young star show off his talents. In a league where star-loaded rosters survive, I don’t believe the Nuggets necessarily have that kind of firepower. If they give Porter a chance in the 8 games before the playoffs, it could get him ready to take on a bigger role in September. I think he will be the difference between a 1st/2nd round exit and a chance at a better ending to this bizarre season for Denver.
8. Houston Rockets
Quick disclaimer: Russell Westbrook has tested positive for COVID-19. Westbrook has said he’s feeling fine, but in the scenario he is not able to return for the season, the Rockets would drop out of this list.
With that in mind, this team is reliant on both Westbrook and James Harden. Both have MVPs under their belts and have shown it this year as they are putting up MVP-like stats respectively. Harden looks like he will lead the league in scoring for the 3rd consecutive year and Russell Westbrook’s all-around game has been a fantastic asset for the Rockets in his debut year with the team.
All of that is great, but why are they just 6th in the west? Their defense has simply been terrible. They are ranked 22nd in points allowed per contest and it shows how much they lack good defenders as they lost an interior beast in center Clint Capela due to a midseason trade.
They got forward Robert Covington in that exchange, who is a solid 3 and D player which is a role that fits in well with what coach Mike D’Antoni wants to accomplish. Moves like this make their offense that much more potent (as they are currently the best offense in the league) but become detrimental to their defense. Their starting lineup now lacks a center, as does the entire team whose largest player is just 6’8”. While they can space the floor better than anyone in the league, this team will be chewed up and spit out by teams with dominant big men like the Lakers, Jazz, or even the Mavs with Kristaps Porzingis.
They’ll need very good production from an underwhelming supporting cast around Westbrook and Harden if they wish to get past the 2nd round. They slip into the top 10 because of their pure talent at the guard positions but I wouldn’t be surprised if they flunk out of the 1st round. This team will be hit or miss in the Bubble.
9. Dallas Mavericks
Luka. Luka. Luka. Slovenian star Luka Dončić is in his 2nd year and is already putting up MVP-like numbers for the Dallas Mavericks. He can score from virtually anywhere, attack the boards, and facilitate the offense night in and night out. He carries himself like a 5-year vet at the age of 21, because he’s been playing pro overseas since 2015 at age 16. He’s become the new face of international players in the league, a fitting role for a Mavericks’ star playing where German legend Dirk Nowitzki once hit his acclaimed fadeaways.
His presence alone is enough for the Mavericks to sneak onto this list, but there are a few more pieces to this Dallas team that will make them competitive in the bubble. Another international phenomenon, center Kristaps Porziņģis will be huge for their playoff hopes.
Originally drafted by the Knicks, the Latvian star proved the doubters wrong and became one of the best stretch bigs in the league. After injuries and a trade to Dallas, the 7’3” center will look to have a career renaissance of sorts with the Mavs. He’s had a great year thus far after missing the 2018–19 season and his ability snatch rebounds and run the pick and roll with Luka will be the bread and butter for this Dallas team.
Outside of their two European stars, this roster has a couple of bright spots. Guard Seth Curry is a top 10 shooter in the league in terms of efficiency, as he hits his 3’s at a tremendous 45.3% clip. His consistent ability to get 10+ PPG and efficiently at that is what a playmaker like Luka banks on. Starting SF Tim Hardaway Jr. has also been a consistent force in Dallas, getting them over 15 points per game with consistency this year. He’s also been shooting 40% from 3-point range this year, further proof of this team’s tremendous ability to space the floor.
Although their bench doesn’t have the depth most would like it to, their starting 5 is one of the better lineups on this list. They fit into the common formula of using duos this season and if Luka and Kristaps can turn that duo into something special, I like their chances in Orlando.
10. Utah Jazz
Fighting off teams like the Heat and Thunder for this final spot, the Jazz have had a top-10 worthy year in 2019–20 season. A stark defensive squad and a solid offense are what has led Utah to their 4th spot in the competitive west.
What has made put them in the top 10 for points allowed though? It’s safe to attribute this to their 2-time Defensive Player of the Year, center Rudy Gobert. He has consistently been an anchor for this team since he got solid minutes in 2014 and hasn’t looked back. He has led the league in blocks once and has been getting 2+ BPG since. Outside of his generational defensive talents, Gobert has been an extremely consistent source of points for the Jazz this year. He is shooting almost 70% from the field and getting 15 PPG, pretty much the most you can ask from a center who is old-fashioned like The Stifle Tower.
Speaking of offense, 3rd year SG Donovan Mitchell has been that guy for Utah. Getting over 24 PPG and his first All-Star nod, Mitchell will have to carry a 17th ranked offense as they prepare for the playoffs. His isolation skills and a complete arsenal of offensive abilities have been the reason the Jazz aren’t worse on offense than they are.
But Mitchell’s isolation skills aren’t going to be the savior of this rather average offense. That will instead come from his playmaking skills and point guard Mike Conley. Conley, who has a reputation and a pass-first point guard, hasn’t been a great play initiator for Utah this year. Both him and Mitchell will need to move the ball better as they are currently bottom 5 in assists.
Going to the bench, former Lakers guard Jordan Clarkson has been a reliable source of points this year. Getting about 25 MPG and 15 points from those minutes, the Jazz will look for him to step in and keep the ship afloat while Donovan Mitchell rests. One guy I believe could be solid for the Jazz is Emmanuel Mudiay. The former starter for the Nuggets has great athletic ability and can be another scoring option for the Jazz off the bench if he can get more time in the rotation. Other than those 2, this team isn’t super deep and it docks them to the 10th spot on this list.
Donovan Mitchell has won a playoff series in the past but hasn’t seen great success in his young career. This postseason has the potential to be legacy-defining for him and Rudy Gobert, so they have to make it count.
