On Saturday evening we saw just a glimpse of what may prove to be the most consequential NFL off-season in decades. Matthew Stafford being traded to the Rams for Jared Goff and 2 firsts may be essential to the Rams’ contending chances in 2021 and the Lions’ upcoming rebuild.
Similarly, there are a couple of teams that are one QB away from contention, and lucky for them, there are plenty available this off-season. While there are so many interesting free agent situations across the league brewing in the months before free agency, the QBs on the trade block and in free agency alone are enough to turn heads. Let’s examine why.
Honorable Mention: Dak Prescott
While all signs point to Dak Prescott sticking with the Dallas Cowboys on either a 2nd franchise tag or a long-term deal, Prescott should feel slighted. Following a brilliant beginning to his career, with 40 wins in 4 seasons and 2 Pro Bowls under his belt, Prescott looked destined for a big-time contract in an offseason that saw Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes sign enormous deals.
Awaiting a long-term deal in the mid to high 30 million’s last off-season, Prescott was unable to come to an agreement with Dallas. They waited until July to place the franchise tag on Prescott, and thus procrastinated on re-signing their franchise QB.
And wouldn’t you know it?
In his 5th game of a season where he had been leading the league in passing yards (2 performances of 450 yards or more and a 500-yard game), Prescott suffered a gruesome leg injury and was out for the remainder of his contract year.
For the same reason Le’Veon Bell held out in 2018, Prescott should make sure he gets paid this offseason. He’s already seen how a single play can threaten his career earnings and needs to get that long-term deal done before July. If the Cowboys keep up their dysfunctional and frankly disrespectful behavior with Prescott by tagging him again in 2021, Dak should hold out until he can get a trade to a team that values his future. For that slim possibility, Dak Prescott is a possible fold down the road in a complex offseason.
Deshaun Watson Is Giving Houston the Silent Treatment
Deshaun Watson’s no BS mentality is one many quarterbacks in the NFL need to survive while tethered to dysfunctional organizations. He made sure to get his long-term contract done in 2020, so his wealth is secured (with a no-trade clause on top of it). After demanding a trade, that clause gives him the ultimate leverage over where he gets traded to, and he’s quickly becoming a model of how to gain power as a professional athlete on a terrible team.
In addition, he’s making trades easier by not picking up calls from the Texans, and that refusal to talk to Houston gives teams a slight bit more leverage over the Texans when negotiating trades since it’s obvious they have no control over Watson. In response, new Texans head coach David Culley and GM Nick Caserio have been trying to do damage control.
Both quotes came a day after it was reported that Watson had actually demanded a trade weeks before news broke, so these quotes were a counterattack to gain leverage by a Texans’ team who hasn’t been able to do about anything right for years on end. By making their head coach their GM, trading a generational talent in DeAndre Hopkins for barely a fifth of what he’s worth, and slighting their franchise QB so badly that he wants a trade months after signing a huge extension, this latest attempt at looking competent is just sad.
Beyond how much this situation empowers players to stand up to organizations that ignore them, Watson’s status over the next couple of months will have a profound impact on every level of the league’s hierarchy.
If he gets traded to the Jets or Panthers, both teams may lose the necessary assets to continue their respective rebuilds. Both have solid assets to complete trade packages, but considering neither has the roster to compete right now, they should bide their time and utilize their top selections to gain young cheap rookies who can change their teams.
Instead, squads like the 49ers, Patriots, and Dolphins should start making calls to Houston about Watson’s price and availability. These are all teams that have the talent and coaching to compete in the playoffs, and just need a franchise QB to propel them to the top. They should all be willing to give away their future assets and trade for Watson to capitalize on their strong current rosters.
Deshaun Watson is easily the gem of the 2021 offseason and whoever saves him from the mess that is the Houston Texans will gain a franchise player.
Solid QBs with Uncertain Futures
Derek Carr
Derek Carr has been rock-solid for the Raiders in his first 7 years. But, his above-average play has led to only a single playoff appearance that he missed with injury. Now in Jon Gruden’s 3rd year, the pressure is mounting for the Raiders to make a move that will return the Silver and Black to the playoffs.
With this growing pressure, many fans are turning on Carr, and his time with the team could be limited. Given that he is a 3-time Pro Bowler and one of the more efficient quarterbacks in the league right now, Carr could draw a big draft haul but will need to be packaged with many picks to make a splash deal work. Practically the only big name QB on this market who is all but certain to be traded at the moment is Deshaun Watson, but that would cost Las Vegas far more than Carr alone.
With the 17th selection in the draft, the Raiders could very well trade Carr and their pick to move up and get Zach Wilson or Justin Fields if they feel like Carr has peaked. But if Carr hasn’t peaked and is just hitting his prime (which the numbers suggest), the Raiders should hold onto him and build on the parts of their team that are really hurting, like the pass rush.
If Carr gets moved, it will be one of the biggest deals of the offseason. We’ll see if the Raiders are adept enough to get the value that makes trading their only franchise QB since Rich Gannon worth it.
Jameis Winston
Another guy who has been overlooked in the past few years is Jameis Winston. One of the biggest arms in the league but also a rash decision-maker, Winston’s stint with the Saints didn’t show potential suitors a thing. He didn’t get an opportunity to start, but his role as understudy to Drew Brees, one of the more efficient QBs ever, may have done wonders for his game.
With that in mind, Winston could be a bargain for teams like the Bears that are just looking for a guy who will come in and bridge the gap between now and whenever they find a franchise QB. Winston will be the best suited for a position like that while still carrying the potential to grab a starting spot. Look for Winston to be a big-time free agent as the offseason approaches.
Cam Newton
Cam Newton has also been a name floating around. A 3-time Pro Bowler, MVP, and Rookie of The Year, Newton is easily the most accomplished name on this list. Unfortunately for his stock, he has struggled for the last 2 seasons. After an injury-shortened season in 2019 with the Panthers, they moved on from their former Super Bowl starter. He then signed an ultra-cheap deal with the Patriots to prove himself and looked promising in his first few starts. After almost upsetting the Seahawks in Seattle, Cam looked as though he had returned to his “Superman” form. Unfortunately, he got COVID in October and never looked the same after that. He told reporters later in the season that it affected his growth heavily:
“Ever since coming back from corona to be honest with you, I felt stagnant in my thought process”
Playing without the hindrance of COVID (hopefully) in 2021 may be all Newton needs to return to a better state. His statement win over the Ravens later in the season after he was well over COVID showed he still has a lot of value as a dual-threat QB and could very well land a starting role in 2021. Some possible suitors would be Denver and New Orleans, or he could just run it back with New England in ‘21.
The Redemption Seekers
Some QBs on this market haven’t accomplished nearly as much as Deshaun Watson or Dak Prescott. Instead, they’ve seen their rookie deals fly by and now are either looking at an uncertain future or free agency. These guys aren’t solely looking for starting roles but would take backup spots to contend with the starters.
Mitchell Trubisky
One guy that would wish nothing more than to get fans off his back is Mitchell Trubisky. After a tough rookie season, Trubisky managed to turn it around and made the Pro Bowl in his sophomore year as an alternate. Since then, he has fallen back into a pit of mediocrity that doesn’t scream “franchise QB” in any sense. Now that Matthew Stafford is off the market and Philip Rivers has retired, Indianapolis may be a big-time destination for QBs. Bringing in Trubisky on a cheap deal and having him battle it out with Jacoby Brissett could bring out the best in both QBs.
Teddy Bridgewater
Another team with an uncertain QB situation is Carolina. After signing Teddy Bridgewater to a 3-year deal, the Panthers have already fired their GM and hired a new one in former Seahawks exec Scott Fitterer. Due to the changes since Bridgewater’s arrival, some believe his future with the team is short. Owner David Tepper has repeatedly avoided affirming their connection with Bridgewater and is giving all the looks of a guy who is about to trade his QB. With the 8th pick in solid QB draft class, you can’t blame the Panthers for wanting to go young to suit a rebuilding team.
That being said, what can the Panther do to trade Bridgewater? Without the luxury of a no-trade clause like Deshaun Watson and the elite QBs, Bridgewater will have to wait on the sideline as the team decides what to do with him. They could trade him back to New Orleans if Drew Brees retires, as he went 5–0 there as a starter and seemed to mesh with Sean Payton extremely well. While that move could affect a contender, a sneaky move would be Bridgewater to Denver since Drew Lock is not panning out in the slightest. Bridgewater doesn't get mentioned a lot in off-season talks but could be a big part of trade talks as the Spring plays out.
Tyrod Taylor
It seems like just yesterday that Tyrod Taylor became the pride of Bills Mafia before being replaced by Josh Allen. He then went on to start for Cleveland and was later benched for Baker Mayfield. This season saw him come to the Chargers with a starting position. But after a medical disaster where his lung was punctured by training staff and Justin Herbert’s amazing rookie year, Taylor is out of a starting role and back to free agency, yet again. Now, the 31-year old QB will look for another backup spot.
Some possible locations include the Patriots, Seahawks, or Texans, but he will likely not make a big impact on any of these teams’ chances of contending. Taylor is a top option at backup though, and in a league where QB injuries can end seasons, having a solid backup is more important than ever. Although it may not be what he wanted, Taylor will certainly find a home as a backup this offseason.
Sam Darnold
It seems like Sam Darnold will be out of New York in most scenarios this offseason. The former 3rd overall pick has been far from perfect in his 3-year career so far, especially compared to his 2018 draft mates. In all fairness, the Jets have not bothered to reinforce his pass protection or get him solid weapons to throw to, not to mention how abysmal the run game has been. He’s still shown flashes under bad coaching and a lack of help, so there’s a chance that new HC Robert Saleh will want to keep him.
But, the scenarios where he is forced off the Jets outweigh the ones that allow him to stay. He could be packaged in a Deshaun Watson trade or could be sent elsewhere due to the drafting of top QB with the 2nd overall pick.
So, his prospects are looking like the Jets, Texans, and then being a backup anywhere else. Easily one of the most unfairly treated top 3 picks, Darnold will seek redemption wherever he goes after starting his career with one of the worst offenses of the last decade.
