Sunday’s Super Bowl showdown between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs has historic implications for not only the most accomplished player in the sport but for the one guy who has a chance to catch him. The weight of the Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes matchup cannot be overstated, but there will be 20 other players on the field at all times. While both QBs will play essential roles, the postseason has shown how strong and balanced either team is.
Coming off 7 straight wins, the Buccaneers have truly heated up historically to reach the Super Bowl. Their last loss came against the Chiefs in Tampa Bay, so their motivation to absolve themselves of that close defeat in November will be yet another point of emphasis on Super Sunday.
Meanwhile, KC has been hot all year. The Chiefs have only truly lost 1 game and have been the undisputed juggernauts in the league.
As these teams get set for a rematch with gargantuan stakes this time, let’s focus on some key matchups in Super Bowl 55 and X-Factors whose subtle presence could completely shift the tide in Tampa Bay.
Key Matchups
Bucs’ front 4 vs. undermanned Chiefs offensive line
In terms of injuries, few Super Bowl participants have ever had to deal with the wealth of offensive line injuries Kansas City is managing right now.
With starting guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif opting out to fight COVID-19 as a healthcare worker at the beginning of the season, the Chiefs already had to start the year with replacements. As the season progressed, their luck began to run out as well. Starting guard Kelechi Osemele suffered season-ending knee injuries in Week 5, All-Pro tackle Mitchell Schwartz has been dealing with a back injury since Week 6 and is unlikely to suit up Sunday, and Pro Bowl tackle Eric Fisher tore his achilles in the AFC championship.
With all these injuries piling up, the Chiefs will have to worry about keeping their star QB safe against this fierce Tampa Bay defense. Usually, Patrick Mahomes can pick apart teams because either his protection is impeccable, or they blitz, which leaves one-on-one matchups with some of the savviest receivers in the game.
With a replacement-riddled offensive line to face, the Bucs won’t have to worry about whether they should blitz, so that covers a key weakness. With pass rushers galore, like Jason Pierre-Paul, Shaquil Barrett, Ndamukong Suh, and big Vita Vea to stop the scarce runs, they should be able to drop 7 into coverage consistently, which means they can double both Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill.
This is where the brilliance of the Chiefs kicks in though. Suppose the Bucs’ take away both Kelce and Hill with this formula. They will now have to deal with one-on-one coverage with Mecole Hardman, Clyde Edwards-Helaire out of the backfield, and Demarcus Robinson (or Sammy Watkins if he plays). Those matchups are tough due to the sheer speed of Hardman and Watkins, but the real kicker is that even with this formula, Mahomes is not accounted for.
Although the severe injuries to the offensive line mean the Bucs can worry more about coverage than getting pressure on Mahomes, don’t be surprised if Mahomes still forces Bucs’ DC Todd Bowles to commit another man to him when he starts running the ball himself.
Any other pass-first team in football would be almost completely compromised by the injuries the Chiefs are dealing with.
But they aren’t just any team.
That being said, the status of Mahomes’ turf toe could still be a factor. Although the QB said he’s progressed well since injuring his toe against the Browns in the Divisional Round, his mobility while being under constant strife will be paramount against a ferocious Tampa Bay front 4.
If Patrick Mahomes wants ring number 2, he’ll have to do while passing from dirty pockets, on the run, or on designed bootlegs that Andy Reid is sure to use to keep him safe.
Tom Brady vs. Chris Jones
There’s really no other way to say it. At 43 years old, Tom Brady has resummoned his prime. Passing for 40 TDs for the second time in his impossibly great career this season, Brady has fared well with the wealth of weapons at his disposal.
But, his age has come with a price.
Time and time again this season, Brady’s age has shown when he throws a ball into double coverage instead of taking a hit in the pocket because he knows any hit at this point could have major repercussions. As a result, Brady is 2–3 this season in games where he takes 3 sacks and has 5 interceptions in those 3 losses.
Even in the NFC Championship, pressure up the middle on a blitz caused Brady to throw a pick to Jaire Alexander in the 3rd quarter while attempting to avoid a hit. If he makes a decision like that even once and turns it over to Mahomes, the Bucs could spend the rest of the game playing catch-up — which is not a winning formula against the most prolific offense in the league.
Thankfully, he’s stayed healthy in part due to this mentality, but this weakness where he’d rather throw a pick than take a hit is something Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will be sure to capitalize on. And who better than your best interior pass rusher to expose Brady’s lone fatal flaw?
Chris Jones has easily been the second-best interior pass rusher in the league outside of Aaron Donald this season, and even on plays where he doesn’t get a sack, he can single-handedly move the pocket. Brady is fantastic at sensing pressure from the edges and has great tackles to handle guys like Frank Clark for the most part, so it should come down to Jones’ impact in the middle. Whether Brady can maneuver in a pocket Jones is sure to shift will be key to how this Chiefs’ defense handles Tampa Bay’s deep offense.
With guys like Tyrann Mathieu and Juan Thornhill lurking in that Chiefs secondary, Brady will have to resist the urge to throw ill-advised passes and instead take some hits on Sunday.
X-Factors
Mecole Hardman
Like I said earlier if the Bucs dedicate double-teams to Kelce and Hill, WR2 Mecole Hardman should get single coverage consistently. According to PFF in 2019, Mecole Hardman was the highest-graded receiver in the league against single coverage. Whether he meets Jamel Dean or Sean Murphy-Bunting in constant one-on-one’s, Hardman’s ability to win those matchups will add a crucial fold to KC’s impressive offense.
Also, Hardman’s usefulness extends beyond being split out wide or in the slot, as the 2nd-year speed demon out of Georgia has been a handful in the punt return game and on jet sweeps. Against a fast Tampa Bay defense, look for Mecole Hardman to keep the Bucs on their toes.
Antoine Winfield Jr. and Jordan Whitehead
One of the most underrated rookies of 2020, Antoine Winfield Jr. has made a name for himself in the 2020 playoffs. Racking up 94 tackles on the season and establishing himself already as one of the hardest hitters in the league, Winfield’s enforcer mentality and ability to get the Chiefs to cough up the ball will be huge.
Speaking of forcing fumbles, Tampa Bay’s other young star safety Jordan Whitehead has been removed from the injury report and should be ready to go. The 3rd-year safety out of Pitt has had a breakout year and proved to be Tampa Bay’s X-Factor in the NFC championship, forcing 2 fumbles of Aaron Jones. The one that was recovered by Tampa Bay completely shifted the momentum to the Bucs and preemptively reversed the effects of Brady’s turnover-laden 2nd half.
Although the Pro Bowl-level guys like Shaquil Barrett, Lavonte David, and Devin White all get the recognition on this Bucs’ defense, this young safety tandem’s ability to force turnovers will be critical for Tampa Bay as they fight for the title.
Super Bowl 55 certainly has the potential to be one of the greatest championship games in the NFL’s history. But, while you watch this Sunday, make sure to get a glimpse of some of the guys listed here. They might make plays we remember forever!
