The Ravens’ Loss to Buffalo Was the Upset of the Divisional Round
Despite being favored to win a tight one, the 2-seeded Bills’ 17–3 victory over the 5-seeded Ravens was the upset of the playoffs thus far.
After struggling against the Colts who were more physical and imposing in the run game than the Bills’ defense, the aura surrounding the Bills shifted. Coming into the playoffs on a 6-game win streak where both their offense and defense thrived, it was expected that they’d knock off the 7 seed Colts rather easily. Instead, they needed superhuman efforts from both Stefon Diggs and Josh Allen to counter Indy’s balanced attack.
The Colts were in fact the first team in playoff history to pile up 450 yards with 0 turnovers and still lose a game. The efforts by the Bills’ red-zone defense were their saving grace on a day where they were manhandled by an inferior opponent, as the Colts' 163 yards rushing were a result of constantly winning the war in the trenches.
Matched up against a dominant rushing attack in the Baltimore Ravens with the Bills’ front 7 looking as bleak as ever, the Buffalo looked poised to be eliminated. But the momentum of the game shifted early, as a rush-heavy initial drive from the Ravens was capped off by a rare missed field goal from Justin Tucker. From there, the game turned into a complete slugfest.
A pass-heavy response from the Bills got them a field goal, but nothing else in the entire first half. This game went from being a predicted battle of pass-based offense and run-based offense to a defensive struggle in minutes.
By the 3rd quarter, the Bills had finally found the endzone and led 10–3. Driving with a chance to tie it up at the 9-yard line, Lamar Jackson forced a pass into triple coverage. The result, a 101-yard pick-six for Taron Johnson and a 2-score game. The ensuing possession somehow ended worse, with Jackson suffering a concussion and the Ravens were punting from their own territory.
Tyler Huntley, the backup QB, entered and that was all she wrote for Baltimore. Case in point, on a crucial 4th & 9, Huntley had Hollywood Brown open for a long touchdown and simply missed him. Jackson’s crucial mistake and untimely concussion saved the Bills, and the Divisional Round shifted the concern from the defense to their offense.
For the Ravens:
A devastating end to the season. When they were 6–5 and holding on for dear life, the Ravens showed championship pedigree and didn’t lose their next 6. They’ve essentially been playing playoff football for 2 months, and for it to end in a game where everything they excel at was torn to shreds is the worst way to go.
Firstly, their run game looked human. After a first possession where they pushed Buffalo all over the place and ran like hell, the Bills stiffened up, forcing Lamar to beat them through the air. This was the best-case-scenario for Buffalo, as their porous run defense pales in comparison to their top 5 pass defense. After a while, it became clear that the Ravens were desperate for chunk plays and strayed away from the run. It was eerily reminiscent of their few losses over the last two years, and their lack of faith in staying committed to run cost them big again, especially without Lamar Jackson.
Moving forward, likely without offensive coordinator Greg Roman, the Ravens will need to evolve. The drop-back pass game showed flashes throughout the end of the season and looked great at times in their Wild-Card bout with Tennessee, but against blitz-savvy teams like KC and lockup secondaries like Buffalo, this passing game will not stand a chance. One of the more overlooked storylines this offseason will be the Ravens’ OC search. The number of hits Lamar Jackson is taking doesn’t exactly spell out a 20-year career, so their championship window with the 2019 MVP at the helm is short; they must make it count with a good hire in the coming months.
In terms of defense, that was perhaps the best 2-game stretch by a defensive unit all season, making their elimination more painful. To shut down a 2,000-yard rusher one week, then hold a top-rated pass offense to 10 points the following game shows how dominant this defense can be. With defensive coordinator Wink Martindale’s performance over the last few seasons putting him in a position to be a dark horse head coaching candidate as well, the Ravens have a potentially loaded offseason ahead of them where they may be forced to replace 2 of the best coordinators in football.
Regardless, this is a talented squad that showed championship pedigree amongst controversy in 2020. Whoever comes in to fill any coordinator vacancies that arise will have the tools to take this team to the next level, but likely will not be as savvy as Martindale or Roman respectively. With that in mind, the question must be asked: Were the last 2 seasons as good as it gets for Baltimore?
2021 will be another chance to definitively say “NO” for the Ravens.
For the Bills:
In a sour juxtaposition, the Bills will face the Chiefs in the AFC Championship. They will go from defending a league-leading rushing attack one week to a №1 passing offense the next week.
While it will require a lot of coaching to get the defense focused back on defending the deep ball rather than stacking the box to defend the run, the worry will be around Buffalo’s offense, and how it keeps up with KC. Superstar QB Josh Allen looked very human on Saturday night and uncharacteristically fazed by the blitz. While yes, the Ravens’ secondary is far more daunting than KC’s, Allen’s inability to deliver balls with the same consistency against the blitz in the Divisional Round compared to the regular season spells out trouble for Buffalo in their first AFC Championship since Jim Kelly.
Look for offensive coordinator Brian Daboll to get Allen started with a few quick throws next week and shake off some of the nerves that come with the high-level football Buffalo is playing. They are still very alive in their Super Bowl pursuit, but they desperately need their MVP quarterback to show up for the game of his life in Kansas City.
Both of these teams will be major players in the AFC for the next 5 years, but only one gets to keep pursuing that elusive Lombardi Trophy in 2020.
