After a miraculous 2019 season that saw the Kansas City Chiefs overcome injuries and adversity to win their first Super Bowl title in 50 years, the reigning champs came into 2020 as the heavy favorites. At 14–2 with the AFC’s first seed and only bye secured, the Chiefs remain the favorite to hoist their second straight Lombardi Trophy.
But as is the case in every season, the favorite is always sure to get the best of each opponent face. Case in point, the eliminated Falcons nearly managed to knock off Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City in their final real game of the season and it just goes to show how much harder teams will play when facing a favorite.
Regardless, the Chiefs always seem to pull off a W with their aggressive defense and an all-time great offense led by former MVP and Super Bowl champ (all at the age of 25) Patrick Mahomes.
Considering there have been multiple teams who greatly improved since the beginning of the 2020–21 season, let’s look at who has a chance to knock off the juggernaut Chiefs.
1. Buffalo Bills
The 2 seed in a competitive AFC, the Bills have been on fire for the last month and a half. After losing to Arizona on the “Hail Murray”, the Bills have been on a path of destruction. Winning by a margin of nearly 20 in the last 6 games, Buffalo has become a premier team in the NFL.
Led by dark-horse MVP candidate Josh Allen and the Bills’ high-flying offense, Buffalo is reaching heights they haven’t seen since the days of Jim Kelly. Due to the miraculous work offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has done with Allen, he now ranks highly in completion percentage and consistently hits on passes with a high level of difficulty when his main weakness a year ago was accuracy. His growth has been the defining factor of the Bills’ new contending team and if Aaron Rodgers wasn’t having one of the most efficient seasons ever, he’d receive a good amount of MVP votes.
But what else has led to this franchise-defining year for the Bills?
Trading for disgruntled Vikings’ WR Stefon Diggs was the first step. A precision route-runner and run-after-catch genius, Diggs became the first elite wide receiver Josh Allen has ever had in the NFL. Now the undisputed number one option in Buffalo, Diggs showed he thrives in the WR1 role leading to career years for him and Josh Allen, respectively.
Next is their ability to maintain their top 10 pass defense. Pro-Bowl corner Tre’Davious White and their elite safety tandem of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer have maintained their franchise’s trend of top-tier pass D. In their previous matchup with the Chiefs, they forced coach Andy Reid to go with run-centric play-calling, and although KC was able to make that plan work and convincingly won the game, it cannot be understated how good a secondary must be to change the Chiefs’ pass-heavy approach and the Bills are that good.
During their 6-game win streak, the Bills decided to get their subpar run game going as well. A crucial reason why they lost to KC the first time around was their inability to move the ball on the ground, as they were only able to muster 84 yards rushing in a game where the pass-heavy Chiefs put up 245 yards rushing. Over the last 6 games, the Bills are averaging 123 yards rushing as compared to their 88.7 average over the first 10 games of the season — a promising sign going into playoff football. While Josh Allen is the key to winning big in January, keeping a balanced offensive attack should prove beneficial to Buffalo. If the Chiefs decide to go with a run-heavy offense in their seemingly inevitable rematch, Buffalo will be better equipped to respond with a running game of their own.
So, what else tells us the Bills will put up a better fight against KC than the first time around where they were defeated 26–17? Josh Allen was wildly inaccurate in their first matchup. Finishing with 122 yards and completing just over 50% of his throws, Allen looked as though he regressed to his rookie form against the stingy Chiefs’ defense. Now on a hot streak where he has consistently been delivering Mahomes’ level throws with arguably the highest degree of difficulty in all of football, Allen will prove to be a much tougher asset to shut down in January.
But, Josh Allen isn’t the only Bill on a hot streak right now. Stefon Diggs is currently leading the league in receptions and yards and is playing the best football of his career. No corner on KC can hope to match up with him, so looked for Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to whip up a few of his famous creative blitzes to try and force Allen’s hand instead.
The one space the Bills are susceptible in is their run defense. They are currently 20th at stopping the run and don’t have a defensive line that truly forces teams to abandon the run game. If Kansas City has Clyde Edwards-Helaire healthy again, like they estimate him to be by the conference championship, and the Chiefs run for 200+ on them again, they could end up controlling the game start to finish like how they did back in October and defeat the Bills handily.
But, against a more creative run scheme by the 49ers a few weeks ago, the Bills were able to lock it down and dominate the game. Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier will need to ride the momentum of this hot streak to invigorate the D line, as they are truly the key to winning this matchup. If they can slow the run and get the Chiefs to become 1-dimensional, passing the ball nonstop, the Bills are one of the only teams that can relatively contain KC with their secondary. Look for plenty of run-commits early to ensure there is not a repeat of their first face-off.
All in all, the Bills are hot right now. They are virtually unrecognizable right now as compared to the team that lost to KC in October and are the worthiest adversary the Chiefs can face right now. It just feels inevitable these two will meet in the Conference Championship and it could turn out to be the best matchup of the season.
2. Baltimore Ravens
The definition of a dark-horse, the 2020 Ravens are a championship-level roster coming off a 14–2 year all wrapped up into an innocent looking 5 seed. Despite the fact they nearly missed the playoffs after such an impressive 2019 season, the Ravens are getting hot at just the right time and could pose a threat to KC in the Divisional Round or beyond.
Currently on a 5-game win streak, the Ravens have been playing playoff football since they got off to a 6–5 start. These two could meet in the Divisional Round if Baltimore knocks off the Titans (who they played extremely close earlier in the season), and all of a sudden the Chiefs will face one of the better teams in the entire playoff field in their first game in 2 weeks.
But what’s so dangerous about this 11–5 team on a 5-game win streak against some of the league’s worst teams (and the Browns)?
The simple answer is, they’ve absolutely dominated teams on the ground. Currently averaging 266 yards on the ground over their last 5 games and holding their opponents to 102, the Ravens are controlling the pace of their games consistently. Their overwhelming physicality upfront on the offensive line seemed to be a non-factor earlier in the year, but they have come alive with their season in the balance.
In the first Ravens-Chiefs matchup back in September, the Chiefs jumped ahead earlier, forcing Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman to get away from his game plan and revert to a pass-heavy offense the Ravens simply aren’t equipped to win with. Even with this pass-heavy plan, the Ravens ran for 158 yards on just 21 attempts, with 60 yards rushing coming on their initial possession. That possession, they were slicing KC up with J.K. Dobbins, Lamar Jackson, and Mark Ingram, but the possession came to an abrupt end when the Ravens called 3 straight passes and were stopped. They were utterly dominating the Chiefs on the ground but opted to throw to finish it out. They cannot afford to abandon the run this time around like how they did in September, because Baltimore will get blown off the field if they attempt to go into a pass-only shootout with Patrick Mahomes.
After eating the Bengals’ front 7 alive in Week 17 for 400+ rushing yards (!!!) the Ravens will need to trust their big offensive line and creative run scheme if they want to keep up with the Chiefs in a potential playoff matchup.
And they have indeed shown a sense of trust in the run game since September, as Baltimore has learned they can make comebacks while using the run game as their main source of offense. Case in point, their matchup with the Browns. Finishing with 231 yards on the ground and 5 rushing TDs in a 47–42 thriller, the Ravens learned to not abandon the run game and it paid dividends. Any matchup with the Chiefs has the potential to spiral into an offensive showdown, but the Ravens have shown their dominant rushing attack can keep up. Against an 18th ranked Chiefs run defense, there’s reason to believe this could be a nightmare matchup for KC.
So, what advantages does KC have over Baltimore? Oddly enough, despite having an All-Pro tandem of cornerbacks in Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey, the Ravens got flamed by Patrick Mahomes in their first bout. He finished with 385 passing yards and 4 TDs, leaving the top 10 Ravens’ pass defense in shock. Marcus Peters was hit hard in the matchup, as he was targeted 9 times, gave up 7 catches, and allowed 114 yards with a long TD to cap it off. It seemed the quickness of the Chiefs’ blazing wide receivers got the best of the Ravens’ secondary, as Mahomes’ ability to extend plays matched with impeccable pass protection gave the receivers plenty of time to break free. Currently in the top 10 for quarterback pressure percentage, the Ravens will need to get Mahomes on the ground at least a few times to give their secondary a chance. If they finish with no sacks again, the Chiefs can control the game completely.
With all this complex matchup laid out, what are the Ravens’ main keys to pulling off an enormous upset against KC? Firstly, stick with designed QB runs and outside zones. J.K. Dobbins has emerged as a solid RB1 and the Chiefs could not contain Lamar Jackson when he ran designed QB draws back in September. Keeping that mediocre KC run defense on its heels should be enough to match the Chiefs’ offensive production, as long as the Ravens run down their throats early. Next is for the Ravens to have adequate safety help to account for the speed demons in Kansas City’s receiving corps. Blown coverages and man to man coverage losses gave the Chiefs so many explosive plays the first time around, so having two deep safeties is a must. Finally, get pressure on Mahomes. As perfect as they come in terms of playing clean football, it’s no easy task to get takeaways against the Chiefs. But any QB can be forced into errors with ample pressure, so Ravens’ pass rushers like Patrick Queen, Calais Campbell, Yannick Ngakoue (who is a new addition since the last matchup), and Matt Judon will need to take over this game at some point.
Kansas City never falls asleep against threatening opponents. The games they drop usually come against less scary opponents like the Raiders, and the stigma that comes with the title of “Wild-Card Team” may be enough for the Ravens to upset the Chiefs. Win or lose, their second matchup should be much closer than their September tilt.
3. Green Bay Packers
The NFC’s 1 seed, the Packers are seen by many as the biggest threat to Kansas City in the Super Bowl. Ending the season on a hot streak where they displayed an uncanny ability to play complementary football, the Packers are like the Bills and Ravens in the sense they are all peaking at the right time.
So why are the Packers ranked below the AFC’s 5-seeded Ravens? It’s quite simple: The Ravens are also hot and only need to get a win or two within the confines of the AFC playoffs to reach a bout with KC, whereas the Packers will need to squeak out 2 wins against the best the competitive NFC has to offer to reach the Super Bowl, so their chances of playing KC differ.
When it comes to football, however, this would be a Super Bowl that would draw in the most viewers. Mahomes vs. Rodgers, the old school elite QB vs. the new school improviser; it’s must-see football.
We saw the Ravens at 2 because of how well they match up with the Chiefs, so what makes the Packers good enough to be on this list?
Firstly, they are an unbelievably dynamic offense, finishing first in points scored this season. For a Chiefs defense that has been mediocre against the run and has relied on well-called blitzes to confuse and ruffle opposing quarterbacks, the QB-RB duo of Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones may be what the doctor ordered to dismantle this D. Jones is one of the best running backs in the league at navigating through tight spaces and breaking free, so he will strain this average run D. Meanwhile, against the blitz, Aaron Rodgers is no punk. Constantly evading sacks and being protected by a fantastic O-line, Rodgers is a QB I’d say to limit blitzing against. Davante Adams should also prove to be a matchup nightmare like Stefon Diggs earlier, as he is the only receiver in the league I’d take over Diggs on route-running alone. The Chiefs’ inability to man up with him and his savvy zone-busting moves should give Aaron Rodgers solid, quick windows to beat the aggressive blitzing of the Chiefs.
But there is one unfortunate advantage for KC and that is the untimely injury that has taken the Packers’ best offensive lineman, LT David Bakhtiari. Look for the Chiefs to attack the left side of Green Bay’s line constantly, as it has been a non-issue for Rodgers all season and will be a jarring reality to not have that side secured.
On the ground, the last couple of weeks have proven the Packers have multiple quality running backs to rely on outside of Aaron Jones. With the emergence of A.J. Dillon as a possible workhorse against the Titans, the Packers have 2 quality running backs to replace Aaron Jones throughout games with Jamaal Williams being another solid option. If the Packers can maintain their year-long trend of nearly 5 yards per carry, they will be able to keep up with the inevitably hot Chiefs offense.
On defense, there are a lot of things to like about Green Bay. Finishing top 10 in sacks, this Packers’ D line is no slouch. Za’Darius Smith finished with 12.5 sacks this season and remains one of the most dangerous edge rushers in the NFL today, with guys like Rashan Gary contributing here and there. My main cause for concern this season though is the lack of pressure being delivered from their other outstanding edge rusher, Preston Smith. Smith broke out as a premier OLB in 2019 with 12 sacks but has struggled to get to the quarterback the same in 2020, contributing just 4 sacks. This defense was mighty in 2019 because of the overwhelming pressure from either tackle, but without Preston Smith playing Pro Bowl-level football, this defense is a lot less scary. Especially when you are going against Pro Bowl LT Eric Fisher and the slippery Patrick Mahomes, who turns potent pass rushes into dust every week.
In the secondary, there is a reason for excitement, as Pro Bowl corner Jaire Alexander has been playing outstanding football in 2020. However, matched up with Tyreek “Cheetah” Hill, Alexander will have his hands tied. Showing a tendency to get burned on occasion throughout his career because of underestimating his opponent’s speed, Alexander will have to be perfect on Super Bowl Sunday against the fastest man in the NFL, putting immense strain on the rest of the secondary. While this pass defense is a top 10 unit, Patrick Mahomes should have a nice outing with Jaire Alexander busy running all over the place with Tyreek Hill.
Another thing the Packers excel at on defense is stopping the run. Thanks to a fast second level of linebackers and good tacklers at safety, the Packers should be able to stop either Le’Veon Bell or Clyde Edwards-Helaire depending on Edward-Helaire’s availability. Defensive tackle Kenny Clark is one of the better run stuffers in the league, so they will force Mahomes to go pass-heavy. Unfortunately, we know Mahomes excels when literally becoming the entire Chiefs offense.
So what are the keys to victory for Green Bay in a Super Bowl bout with KC?
First, expose the porous Chiefs’ run D with constant runs from Aaron Jones and company. Once they start pulling guys from the second level to commit to the run, let Aaron Rodgers toss the rock at will, likely exposing 1 on 1 matchups with Davante Adams stemming from the run-committing. On defense, the Packers just need to get key stops here and there to keep up in a likely shootout. With their personnel, the Chiefs’ run game should be a non-issue, but stopping Mahomes is where the game begins. They will need guys who have underperformed in pass-rushing like Preston Smith to reawaken and constantly get Mahomes in the turf. His confidence is unwavering, but if the Packers can force him into an ill-advised throw at Jaire Alexander or a few third-down sacks, the Packers will stand a chance.
A Packers-Chiefs Super Bowl could be one for the ages, but the Packers will need to tidy up their pass rush and respect the deep ball threats KC poses. The game would be a landmark of how far football has come since those days of 3–0 defensive showdowns and would establish offense as the premier side of the ball, yet again.
Although the Chiefs remain mine (and most fans’) top team in the NFL, these 3 premier squads should give us entertaining playoff matchups with KC.
